Russia-Ukraine war shifts from pursuit of victory to calculus of exhaustion

The battlefield remains active, with Russia incrementally advancing in Donbas and Ukraine expanding drone attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting fuel, refining, logistics, and military infrastructure. NATO, while not seeing an imminent direct attack, remains alert to hybrid activities and provocations. Peace diplomacy exists in form but lacks substance, as both sides prepare for a prolonged struggle.

The conflict is now shaped by six fronts: Donbas, long-range missile and drone attacks, economic resilience, nuclear safety at Zaporizhzhia, intelligence channels, and political endurance. A recent Russian strike on a military warehouse in Myla, west of Kyiv, resulted in 38 deaths, highlighting the devastating impact of long-range attacks on military and civilian targets. Ukraine faces a military budget deficit of approximately $27 billion and seeks clearer military plans and faster disbursement of international aid.

Europe balances supporting Ukraine with fears of direct escalation, providing significant financial and military assistance while avoiding direct NATO-Russia confrontation. Intelligence channels between Washington and Moscow remain open to manage escalation risks, even as formal peace talks are stalled by fundamental disagreements on territory, security guarantee