OPEC reports Nigeria's economic growth sustained by oil output and reforms

Nigeria's economy expanded by 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the 4.0 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The non-oil economy, supported by sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, finance, and insurance, continues to be the primary driver of growth. Increased oil output has also led to improved fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and external buffers.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers' Index, while easing to 52.5 in July from 53.4 in June, still signals a sixth consecutive monthly improvement in private-sector conditions, with firms reporting increased new orders, output, and employment. Higher domestic refining capacity, particularly from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, is expected to enhance energy availability and reduce pressures from petroleum imports. OPEC also noted a softening in inflation pressures, with headline inflation at 15.9 percent year-on-year in June and May, and a moderation in input costs despite higher fuel and raw material expenses.

The near-term outlook for Nigeria remains favorable, supported by oil production, reform progress, infrastructure investment, and stronger business activity.