South Africa anticipates wetter September before heatwaves arrive

Vox Weather meteorologist Michelle du Plessis noted that large parts of the Northern Cape and western interior had an exceptionally dry and unusually warm August. Temperatures in these areas were 2ºC to 4ºC above normal, with several locations recording their warmest August or winter on record. The first week of September is predicted to bring a significant change with a strong cut-off low, leading to wetter than normal conditions across central and eastern South Africa through the first half of the month.

By the final week of September, rainfall patterns may become mixed. South African Weather Service lead scientist Christien Engelbrecht stated that a strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean, combined with global warming, could make 2027 the warmest year on record. The current El Niño is likely to become very strong, potentially exceeding the 3ºC threshold for sea surface temperature anomalies.

While past strong El Niño events have brought widespread drought to southern Africa, some have also been associated with above-normal rainfall. The South African Weather Service's seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 and November 2026 to January 2027 indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the cou