NESG projects Nigeria's external reserves to reach $53 billion by year-end 2026

This projection, presented at the Nigerian Industrialisation and Competitiveness Forum, anticipates a resilient external sector in the second half of 2026, with the naira remaining largely stable. Dr. Joseph Ogebe, Interim Director of Research and Development at the NESG, attributed this growth to higher crude oil production, favorable oil prices, stronger non-oil exports, sustained current account surpluses, improved investor confidence, increased foreign portfolio inflows, and continued foreign exchange market reforms. The NESG also projects the economy to grow by 4.5 percent in the second half of 2026, leading to a full-year GDP growth of about 4.2 percent, driven by improved performance in the oil, manufacturing, agricultural, and services sectors.

However, headline inflation is expected to remain elevated, averaging 15.5 percent for the second half and full-year 2026, due to factors like insecurity in farming communities, flooding, high transportation costs, election-related spending, and festive demand. Olaniyi Yusuf, Chairman of the NESG, emphasized the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on hydrocarbon revenues by strengthening its non-oil export base, advocating for rapid industrialization and mobilization of diverse sources of patient capital.