Moroccan 2026 legislative elections: potential scenarios and political dynamics

With less than two months until the 2026 legislative elections, Morocco's political landscape is at a decisive juncture. Azzedine Hannoun, a professor of public law at Ibn Tofaïl University, suggests that continuity is more likely than a complete break from the political cycle established in 2021, despite several uncertainties. The outgoing governmental majority faces concerns over purchasing power, inflation, and social expectations, but these issues may not necessarily translate into an electoral defeat. The functioning of the Moroccan party system, the influence of local strongholds, and the mobilization capabilities of major parties continue to shape election outcomes. The National Rally of Independents RNI is expected to remain a frontrunner due to its territorial organization and network of elected officials, which could help it mitigate the wear and tear of being in power. In contrast, the Authenticity and Modernity Party PAM, another key member of the majority, appears to be in a more vulnerable position, potentially seeing its relative influence diminish. The Istiqlal Party is seen as the most credible contender for leadership of the next majority, provided it can convert its historical capital and territorial presence into electoral momentum. The Justice and Development Party PJD might regain some of the electorate lost in 2021, but is unlikely to return to its previous performance levels of 2011 and 2016. Hannoun believes a partial recomposition of the government c