Moody's maintains Tunisia's stable outlook, highlights fragile economic balance

While some external balances have improved, particularly after the repayment of the last eurobond and stable foreign exchange reserves, public finances remain under significant pressure due to high debt, interrupted budget consolidation, and persistent structural rigidities. The Caa1 rating of the BCT, which handles sovereign debt issuance and repayment, was also maintained with a stable outlook. Moody's noted that this stability reflects a fragile balance between external support factors and internal vulnerabilities, rather than an improvement in economic fundamentals.

The sovereign rating is constrained by limited fiscal maneuvering room, high debt, insufficient growth potential, and ongoing difficulties in accessing external financing on sustainable terms. Medium-term growth prospects are hindered by structural obstacles impacting job creation, private sector development, and foreign investment. Despite a 38% increase in energy imports between January and May 2026, foreign exchange reserves remained stable, representing 3.3 months of imports in June 2026.

This resilience is attributed to increased agricultural exports, growing remittances from Tunisians abroad, and a 14% rise in foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2026. The repayment of a major euro