Kenya identifies 18 counties at high risk from El Niño, warns of potential flooding

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority forecasts an 81% probability of a strong El Niño developing this year, with effects possibly lasting into early 2027. A national risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre NDOC identified specific threats including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, and damage to critical infrastructure. Counties in the Coastal, Lake Basin, Rift Valley, and North Eastern regions are among the most vulnerable.

Coastal counties like Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, and Kwale face flooding, storm surges, and infrastructure damage. Lake Basin counties such as Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori are at risk of flooding, landslides, and disease outbreaks. In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok are vulnerable to drought, flash floods, and livestock losses.

Northeastern counties Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera could face drought, water shortages, and food insecurity. Urban centers Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu are also identified as high-risk, facing urban flooding, overwhelmed drainage systems, and disruption to essential services. The government stated that these 18 counties have been prioritized in emergency response planning.