Institutional betrayal and the shadow over Nigeria's 2027 elections

It references Jennifer Freyd's 2008 psychological concept of institutional betrayal, where an institution designed to protect harms its beneficiaries. The author points to the 1999 Constitution and repeated campaign promises as evidence of an implied social contract for security, education, health, infrastructure, and a stable economy. However, voter turnout has significantly decreased from 69% in 2003 to 27% in 2023, which the article attributes to structural betrayals across various administrations.

The economic impact of the "subsidy is gone" declaration by President Tinubu is cited, leading to increased fuel prices, a weakened naira, and a collapse in household purchasing power. The 2026 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report estimates that 191.2 million Nigerians will be unable to afford a healthy diet in 2025, up from 137.5 million in 2017. Despite reported subsidy savings of over N14tn, little improvement in public services has been observed, with 2026 debt servicing exceeding combined health and education allocations.

Electoral reforms, such as the BVAS, also failed to restore trust due to disputed results and inconsistent implementation. Security failures, mass defections to the ruling party, and the framing of voter apathy as a character flaw rather than a protectiv