South African Weather Service warns of hotter, drier spring and summer due to strong El Ni帽o
The South African Weather Service Saws has issued a warning for below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country from October 2026 through January 2027. This forecast is attributed to a strong El Ni帽o developing in the Pacific Ocean, which Saws suggests could become the strongest in living memory. El Ni帽o occurs when the sea surface in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean becomes significantly warmer than normal. A strong El Ni帽o is defined by temperatures more than 1.5掳C warmer than usual for three months, while a very strong El Ni帽o exceeds 2掳C warmer. While most El Ni帽o events lead to drier and warmer conditions in southern Africa, Saws noted that not every event results in drought, citing the 1997-98 event which brought slightly above-normal rainfall to parts of South Africa. The combination of this strong El Ni帽o and global warming is also predicted to make 2027 the warmest year on record. Saws anticipates a high frequency of potentially severe heatwaves if the expected below-normal rainfall occurs. The service will continue to monitor and communicate the El Ni帽o's strength and regional impacts, including potential heatwaves and water scarcity.

