South African Weather Service warns of hotter, drier spring and summer due to strong El Niño

This forecast is attributed to a strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean, which Saws suggests could become the strongest in living memory. El Niño occurs when the sea surface in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean becomes significantly warmer than normal. A strong El Niño is defined by temperatures more than 1.5°C warmer than usual for three months, while a very strong El Niño exceeds 2°C warmer.

While most El Niño events lead to drier and warmer conditions in southern Africa, Saws noted that not every event results in drought, citing the 1997-98 event which brought slightly above-normal rainfall to parts of South Africa. The combination of this strong El Niño and global warming is also predicted to make 2027 the warmest year on record. Saws anticipates a high frequency of potentially severe heatwaves if the expected below-normal rainfall occurs.

The service will continue to monitor and communicate the El Niño's strength and regional impacts, including potential heatwaves and water scarcity.