Ethiopia's inflation fight needs more than tight monetary policy, says IMF and local analysis
via The Reporter Ethiopia7 min read
The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board recently approved a USD 664 million disbursement for Ethiopia, bringing total support to USD 2.65 billion. This aid package, which includes funds to absorb Middle East conflict shocks, came with a directive for the National Bank of Ethiopia NBE to maintain a tight monetary policy to control inflation. Ethiopia's annual inflation rebounded to 11.7 percent by April 2026, driven by transport and food price increases, after reaching 9.7 percent in February. However, the article argues that relying solely on monetary policy, such as restricting bank loans and raising interest rates, is insufficient to address the country's cost of living crisis. It highlights structural imbalances, including the impact of Birr devaluation on import costs, and severe supply-side bottlenecks in agriculture due to conflict, fragmented trade routes, and inefficient logistics. The author suggests that credit caps harm local manufacturers and SMEs by limiting liquidity needed for production. The article proposes a dual-track approach: the federal government should scale down capital-intensive projects, redirect savings to targeted investments in domestic food productivity, subsidize high-yield seeds and fertilizers for smallholder farmers, streamline transport regulations, ensure security of trade routes, and use increased tax revenues for direct food-security interventions like subsidized state-run grocery depots.
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This summary was AI-generated from a story originally published by The Reporter Ethiopia.
The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia CBE holds a 70 percent market share in the country's digital finance landscape, according to a report by bank President Abe Sano. Over the past fiscal year, which ended on June 30, CBE facilitated 3.48 billion digital transactions valued at over 22 trillion Birr. The bank also mobilized 707.4 billion Birr in deposits during this period, increasing its total outstanding deposits to 2.4 trillion Birr. This marks the first time a single bank has mobilized such a large amount of deposits in one year, with CBE's total deposits quadrupling in six years. CBE provided 648 billion Birr in credit, with nearly 91 percent directed to the private sector, a significant increase from 10 percent in 2019/20. The bank's total outstanding credit stands at 1.64 trillion Birr, and its non-performing loan ratio is 1.4 percent. CBE's market share is 50.1 percent in deposits, 48.3 percent in credit, 50.1 percent in assets, and 45.4 percent in capital. The National Bank of Ethiopia's Financial Stability Report for 2024/25 highlighted CBE's continued dominance and suggested mergers and acquisitions for other commercial banks, noting that 25 of the 31 banks collectively hold less than 22 percent market share. In comparison, Awash Bank, the largest private commercial bank, reported 467.8 billion Birr in outstanding deposits and 40.7 billion Birr in revenue for 2025/26.
Must ReadEthiopia was omitted from the latest Global Report on Food Crises GRFC because it did not provide acute food insecurity data that met the report's technical requirements. This raises concerns about the country's ability to accurately assess hunger and inform humanitarian responses. The 2026 report, produced by the FAO, WFP, and partners, noted that Ethiopia was among 18 countries where data was either unavailable or did not meet standards. Ethiopia remains vulnerable to food crises, but unlike previous editions, the report does not include estimates for 2025. The report cautions that this omission does not indicate improved food security but rather a decline in global monitoring due to funding shortfalls, access constraints, and difficulties in data collection authorization. The GRFC states that Ethiopia had data in the 2025 report, showing over 27 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2024, but no updated estimates were available for 2025. The report warns that weakening food security information systems are becoming a humanitarian concern, with shrinking donor funding reducing assessment frequency and coverage. This leaves policymakers and humanitarian agencies without an internationally comparable assessment of Ethiopia's food insecurity, highlighting the need for greater investment in monitoring and restoring regular, consensus-based food security analyses.
Must ReadA new assessment reveals that Europe's coffee sector generated over half a trillion euro in economic output and 251.5 billion euro in Gross Value Added in 2025, despite producing almost no coffee. This contrasts with Ethiopia, which continues to export predominantly unprocessed green beans. The study, titled "Economic Impact of Coffee in Europe," shows that while producing countries like Ethiopia supply the raw agricultural input, the majority of economic activity, employment, and tax revenue is generated after the coffee reaches Europe. In 2025, the EU27 imported 2.9 million tonnes of coffee worth 18.7 billion euro from non-EU countries, with over 97 percent being green coffee. The report indicates Ethiopia's significant reliance on the European market, with 34 percent of its coffee exports destined for the EU plus market, making it one of Ethiopia's largest export destinations for this product. Coffee exports to the EU+ account for 11.8 percent of Ethiopia鈥檚 total merchandise exports, underscoring its importance for foreign exchange earnings. The assessment highlights an imbalance, as Ethiopia is one of several coffee suppliers for Europe, but access to the European market is economically crucial for Ethiopia. The study notes that Europe imports almost all its coffee as green beans, with roasting and further processing occurring close to consumer markets. Germany is identified as the largest entry point for extra-EU coffee imports. The report concludes that coffee's economi