El Niño 2026-2027: potential impacts on Mauritius

For Mauritius, this phenomenon is not necessarily predicted to cause severe drought or an increase in cyclones. Instead, the primary threats are likely to be above-normal temperatures, increased pressure on water resources, and more irregular rainfall patterns. The NOAA estimates over a 90% probability that El Niño will become "very intense" by late 2026 and early 2027, with a 69% risk of it surpassing all episodes since 1950 between October and December.

However, these projections do not definitively confirm it will be the most powerful in over a century. Mauritian Meteorological Services analysis from August 10 indicates that past major El Niño events were generally associated with near-normal cumulative summer rainfall but higher temperatures, and below-normal cyclonic activity in the southwest Indian Ocean. Mauritius can expect increased heat during the austral summer, leading to higher risks of discomfort, dehydration, and heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations.

This could also boost demand for air conditioning and electricity, while faster evaporation may reduce soil moisture and deplete water reserves. Although total rainfall might be near normal, its distribution could be unfavorable, with alternating long dry spells and short periods of heavy rain. This could lead to water supply strains, agricultural difficulties, and localized flooding.

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