Two main theories have emerged concerning the drones' origin. One school of thought suggests the sophisticated FPV fiber-optic drones were imported from Ukraine, similar to those seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Proponents of this theory believe such imports would require state-to-state cooperation, pointing to Under Secretary of Defense Abdelsalam Al-Zoubi as a potential importer and distributor to aligned forces.
They suggest that while Zoubi may not have ordered the attacks, his allies in Zawia might have used the drones. The second theory posits that the drones were homemade, based on photographs of destroyed drone remains, particularly one set published by the Criminal Investigation Agency. This view suggests the drones were assembled locally using readily available civilian components and that an 82mm mortar shell warhead was attached with duct tape, indicating local assembly rather than a factory-manufactured, imported military product.
If the homemade theory is correct, it could alleviate scrutiny on the Under Secretary of Defense and Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, Abdel Hamid Aldabaiba. This theory also shifts focus towards Mohamed Bahroun, head of the First Support Group and Deputy Head of the Anti-Security Threat Agency, who some believe seeks control of the Zawia Oil Refinery for smuggling and black-
