Analysts anticipate inflation slowdown despite persistent food price pressures

This outlook is based on easing core inflation and reduced exchange rate volatility, which are expected to counteract ongoing pressure from food prices. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation slowed to 15.43 percent year-on-year in July 2026, down from 15.91 percent in June, marking the second consecutive monthly moderation and the sharpest slowdown this year. Core inflation, excluding volatile components, significantly decreased to 14.97 percent in July from 15.92 percent in June, and month-on-month core inflation dropped to 0.15 percent from 1.66 percent.

This suggests weakening price pressures due to a more stable exchange rate. However, food inflation remains a concern, rising to 20.31 percent year-on-year in July from 17.52 percent in June. Comercio Partners attributes this to agricultural supply constraints, logistics costs, seasonal factors, and structural bottlenecks that monetary policy alone cannot resolve.

Despite the surge in food inflation, the overall headline rate moderated due to lower contributions from other major expenditure categories like food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and accommodation, transport, and housing, utilities, and fuels. The analysts warn that rising political activity and election-related spending could challenge this outlook by increasing demand for food, transportation, acc