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America's energy crisis: Strategic miscalculations, Sino-Russian cooperation, and lessons for Africa and the Global South

In late February 2026, Middle East tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting 20% of global oil trade and causing a significant oil supply shift. Oil production reductions reached 9.1 million barrels per day mb/d by April 2026, with global oil inventories declining by 5.1 mb/d. To stabilize prices, the US released 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve SPR over 120 days, supplemented by 400 million barrels from International Energy Agency IEA members. By early June, US SPR levels dropped to approximately 357.1 million barrels, their lowest since 1983, while Brent crude prices were projected to rise to US$150-US$160 per barrel. US energy secretary Chris Wright acknowledged in mid-March 2026 that the US was unprepared to secure tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Security risks extended to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait by March 28, with JPMorgan estimating a full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could add US$20 per barrel to oil prices. Despite declining SPR and domestic refined product inventories, US crude exports surged over 30% in April to 5.2 mb/d. In contrast, China and Russia have strengthened their energy resilience through practical cooperation, including the Power of Siberia pipelines and long-term oil and gas contracts, with China promoting RMB settlement for diversified trade. For Africa and the Global South, key lessons include the necessity of strategic reserves for long-term security, supply diversification, and