UN expert warns each El Niño event is unique amid global temperature rise
via Le Mauricien6 min read
The UN warns of the return of El Niño this summer, expecting it to cause extreme weather events globally, though intensity remains hard to predict. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate predictions at the World Meteorological Organization WMO, explained that El Niño leads to temporary global warming and affects a large part of the planet. For instance, it can cause droughts in West Africa, the Sahel, Southern Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, while bringing abundant rainfall to regions like the Southeastern United States and the equatorial Pacific. El Niño does not act alone but interacts with other phenomena that can either intensify or reduce its effects. The WMO predicts an 80% chance of an El Niño episode occurring between June and August 2026, with a more than 90% chance of it continuing until at least November, likely ranging from moderate to strong. The WMO provides forecasts six months in advance to help countries prepare, though some consequences, like the impact on the Panama Canal in 2023-2024, can exceed a single country's capacity. International meteorological cooperation has shown progress, with fewer human casualties in 2023-2024 compared to 1997, suggesting improved preparedness. However, each El Niño is unique, and even weak events can have damaging consequences depending on the context. The WMO's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, warned of a potentially powerful El Niño that could exacerbate drought, heavy rains, and heatwaves. UN Secretary-General Ant
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Must ReadA recent analysis by the Price Analysis and Monitoring Division of the Ministry of Commerce and Consumer Protection indicates that the Middle East conflict continues to impact global supply chains, leading to sustained pressure on prices. The analysis, conducted in mid-July, projects a 24% increase in energy prices, a 31% rise in fertilizer prices, and an approximate 16% increase in global commodity prices by 2026. Maritime freight rates remain 39% higher than pre-conflict levels, despite an 18% decrease in the last week, and war risk insurance premiums have also increased.