Tunisian economy faces three risk scenarios due to Middle East conflict and oil prices, according to Ridha Chkoundali

Economist Ridha Chkoundali analyzed the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on international oil prices and Tunisia's macroeconomic stability, presenting three scenarios based on International Monetary Fund assumptions. In a reference scenario, where the conflict ends by June without major escalation, Tunisia's energy bill would reach approximately $6 billion, an increase of 20% to 30%. Economic growth would slow to between 1.8% and 2.1%, inflation would rise to 6.2% to 7%, and public debt would increase to nearly 90% of GDP. A more pessimistic scenario, with the conflict extending until the end of the year, projects the energy bill climbing to around 8 billion dinars, with energy price increases of 35% to 40%. Growth would be further constrained to 1.6% to 1.8%, inflation would reach 7% to 8%, and public debt would approach 95% of GDP. The extreme scenario envisions international oil prices soaring to $110 to $130 per barrel, leading to an additional 10 billion dinars in energy compensation costs for the state budget. This would result in near-stagnant growth of 0.5% to 1.2%, inflation potentially reaching 10%, and public debt peaking at 105% of GDP. Chkoundali highlighted the discrepancy between the assumptions of the 2026 finance law, which set a barrel price at $63.3 and a growth rate of 3.3%, and current market realities. He advocated for an emergency finance law with evolving scenarios to allow real-time adjustments to public policies. Proposed measures include