Tunisian economy faces three risk scenarios due to Middle East conflict and oil prices, according to Ridha Chkoundali
via Business News4 min read
Economist Ridha Chkoundali analyzed the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on international oil prices and Tunisia's macroeconomic stability, presenting three scenarios based on International Monetary Fund assumptions. In a reference scenario, where the conflict ends by June without major escalation, Tunisia's energy bill would reach approximately $6 billion, an increase of 20% to 30%. Economic growth would slow to between 1.8% and 2.1%, inflation would rise to 6.2% to 7%, and public debt would increase to nearly 90% of GDP. A more pessimistic scenario, with the conflict extending until the end of the year, projects the energy bill climbing to around 8 billion dinars, with energy price increases of 35% to 40%. Growth would be further constrained to 1.6% to 1.8%, inflation would reach 7% to 8%, and public debt would approach 95% of GDP. The extreme scenario envisions international oil prices soaring to $110 to $130 per barrel, leading to an additional 10 billion dinars in energy compensation costs for the state budget. This would result in near-stagnant growth of 0.5% to 1.2%, inflation potentially reaching 10%, and public debt peaking at 105% of GDP. Chkoundali highlighted the discrepancy between the assumptions of the 2026 finance law, which set a barrel price at $63.3 and a growth rate of 3.3%, and current market realities. He advocated for an emergency finance law with evolving scenarios to allow real-time adjustments to public policies. Proposed measures include
Free daily or weekly digest of the most important stories from across 10 countries. No spam, unsubscribe any time.
This summary was AI-generated from a story originally published by Business News.
Must ReadThe National Union of Tunisian Journalists SNJT issued a statement on Monday, April 20, 2026, expressing concern over the rise of hate speech in media coverage of irregular migration, particularly targeting migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The union highlighted a dangerous shift in both media content and journalists' social media posts, where discriminatory remarks and generalizations are becoming more frequent. The SNJT condemned coordinated online attacks against several media outlets, including Nawaat, Roots TV, Rachma, and Legal Agenda, and their journalists, who faced insults and accusations after covering a national march against racism and migration issues. The union announced it has mobilized its monitoring unit to document abuses and plans legal and union actions to protect affected professionals. The SNJT believes these attacks are part of a broader pressure campaign to intimidate media and discourage coverage of sensitive human rights topics, potentially leading to self-censorship. The union also criticized internal professional shortcomings, such as sensationalism, reliance on unqualified commentators, and the spread of unverified social media content, which undermine journalistic credibility. It also raised concerns about the involvement of political figures, including Members of Parliament, in discriminatory discourse, which exacerbates tensions and diverts attention from substantive solutions. The SNJT urged journalists to uphold professional ethics, reject ra
Must ReadThe Central Bank of Tunisia detailed its governor Fethi Zouhaier Nouri's meetings in Washington during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings. This engagement reflects Tunisia's broader strategy to reassure foreign partners, secure new financing, and maintain its international financial visibility. The meetings occurred amid a sensitive economic climate, marked by geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, high inflation, and limited budgetary margins. A key issue is the stalled negotiations with the IMF since 2022, despite a 1.9 billion dollar agreement in principle that year. Tunisia's presence in Washington was thus diplomatic, financial, and strategic. Tunisian authorities emphasized the national economy's resilience, with Governor Nouri meeting international institutional investors, Arab Monetary Fund officials, and his counterparts from the Central Bank of Libya and the Bank of Algeria. He highlighted the country's macro-financial stability and efforts to maintain key balances, aiming to convince lenders, markets, and foreign partners of Tunisia's ability to honor commitments and pursue reforms. Behind this message of confidence, Tunisia actively seeks external resources. Finance Minister Samir Abdelhafidh met with international financial institutions, development agencies, and bilateral partners, including the World Bank Group, the International Finance Corporation, MIGA, the OPEC Fund for International Development, European partners
Tunisia's share of renewable energy in its national electricity mix has reached approximately 9%, as announced by the Secretary of State for Energy Transition, Ouael Chouchene, on April 20, 2026. This increase is attributed to intensified private investments, particularly through a licensing system for small and medium-sized enterprises producing electricity from renewables. Chouchene highlighted the recent inauguration of four projects in the Médenine governorate, each with a 30-megawatt capacity, as part of this program. Tunisia aims to achieve 35% renewable energy in its electricity mix by 2030, driven by economic and environmental necessities. The European Union is supporting this transition with 35.8 million euros in grants, funding projects like a 100-megawatt solar photovoltaic plant in Sidi Bouzid and a 300-megawatt solar portfolio in the Gafsa region, totaling 400 megawatts. These projects are expected to attract further private and international co-financing, fostering local investment and technology transfer.
Mohamed Nekhili, a university lecturer in banking law, stated that the International Monetary Fund's continued forecast of 2.1% growth for Tunisia in 2026 is a positive sign, despite global geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and persistent fragilities in emerging economies. Speaking on Radio Nationale, Nekhili also explained the recent decrease in inflation rates and why households still feel significant pressure on their purchasing power. He noted that the IMF's maintained growth prediction indicates the Tunisian economy's resilience against external factors like regional conflicts, volatile commodity markets, and potential increases in oil and grain prices. This perspective aligns with recent statements from the Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Fethi Zouhaier Nouri, who highlighted the vulnerability of economies exposed to external shocks. Nekhili emphasized Tunisia's sensitivity to energy price fluctuations due to its import dependence, which could worsen the trade deficit and strain external finances. He clarified that a slowdown in inflation means prices are increasing at a slower rate, not decreasing, contributing to public misunderstanding of their eroding purchasing power. Inflationary pressure is particularly evident in everyday consumer goods, especially food, and services like catering and accommodation, while sectors such as clothing and electronics may see stabilization or price reductions. Nekhili called for continued market control efforts and