Rethinking conflict mediation in a new era of global disorder

The Horn of Africa, for instance, is experiencing interconnected regional conflicts driven by cross-border networks, external intervention, and economic factors, as seen in Sudan where the war has become deeply entangled with regional rivalries. Contemporary conflicts are increasingly open-ended, sustained by political fragmentation, economic incentives, and geopolitical rivalry, with new warfare technologies like drones and AI-enabled systems changing the dynamics. Mediators often face the moral dilemma of engaging with violent actors, as experience suggests wars end when these actors are brought into a political process, however imperfectly.

Many peace processes fail to engage with underlying realities like the 'political marketplace' where power is embedded in patronage and coercion. This has led to a paradox of more mediation but less peace, with multiple actors pursuing competing initiatives without strategic alignment. Modern mediation is characterized by a deficit of political strategy, coherence, and legitimacy, often becoming procedural rather than transformational.

Additionally, mediation confronts the tension between peace and justice. While victims demand accountability, insisting on maximalist justice demands at the outset may sometimes prolong violence. The African Union Transitiona