OECD forecasts strong growth for Morocco in 2026 amid persistent underlying vulnerabilities
via Le Matin5 min read
The OECD's June 2026 Economic Outlook, titled "Under Pressure," highlights Morocco's paradoxical economic position: achieving one of its best growth performances in years while accumulating structural vulnerabilities. The report projects Morocco's GDP to grow by 5% in 2026, accelerating from 4.6% in 2025, before slowing to 3.9% in 2027. This growth is primarily driven by exceptional winter rainfall, expected to boost agricultural production by about 15% in 2026, and continued public investment in major infrastructure projects, fueling the manufacturing and construction sectors. Private consumption remains strong, supported by declining inflation in 2025, improved consumer confidence, and the benefits of large-scale projects. Exports, tourism revenues, and business confidence were rising in early 2026 until the energy shock from the Middle East conflict disrupted this positive trend. The main vulnerability identified is Morocco's energy dependence, with 90% of its energy needs met by imports, making it susceptible to global market shocks. Inflation, which was 0.7% in 2025, is expected to rebound to 3.2% in 2026 due to rising energy and food prices, then decline to 1.4% in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to widen from over 2.2% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. The OECD recommends reducing fossil fuel reliance, accelerating renewable energy adoption, and enhancing energy efficiency. Phosphates, which accounted for 21% of Morocco's export revenues i
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