Morocco's population to reach 43.3 million by 2060 with significant aging trend, HCP projects

The annual population growth rate is expected to decline from 0.7% in 2024 to almost zero by 2060. The HCP's projections, updated using data from the 2024 General Census of Population and Housing, indicate that the most significant demographic shift will be population aging. The number of Moroccans aged 60 and over is expected to more than double, increasing from 5 million in 2024 to nearly 10.9 million in 2060, representing almost a quarter of the total population.

This trend will have substantial implications for public policies, including increased dependency ratios and challenges for pension financing, healthcare, and maintaining family and intergenerational solidarity. The HCP emphasizes that this aging trend is a lasting development, regardless of the scenario. The country will also see a decrease in the number of children due to an anticipated decline in fertility.

Preschool enrollment is projected to fall by 23.8%, primary school enrollment by 27%, and lower secondary enrollment by 22.9%. The HCP suggests that this reduction in student numbers could present an opportunity to enhance education quality and learning conditions. Furthermore, the population will continue to concentrate in urban areas, with 32.5 million inhabitants in cities by 2060, while the rural population will decrease to 10.8