Moroccan agricultural exports to EU linked to decline in national GDP, study finds

The research, spanning from 1986 to 2023, found that a 1% increase in virtual water exported is associated with an immediate 0.057% decrease in Moroccan GDP. This negative relationship persists in the long term, while investment is identified as the primary driver of growth. The agricultural sector, a strategic macroeconomic pillar, accounts for approximately 12% of national GDP but consumes over 80% of the country's water.

The study, conducted by four researchers from Sultan Moulay Slimane University of Béni Mellal, used an ARDL model to link real Moroccan GDP to virtual water volume exported to the EU, gross fixed capital formation, and agricultural value added. The authors suggest that the negative association may stem from the opportunity cost of water, which is not fully reflected in market prices. Specialization in water-intensive crops for export, such as fruits and vegetables, may offset economic gains due to pressure on already strained water resources.

The study highlights that water-intensive crops, including dates, artichokes, wheat, avocados, citrus, grapes, and olives, consistently represent 75% to 90% of total virtual water exported. Morocco faces acute water stress, with per capita water availability projected to fall below 500 cubic meters by 2030. The researchers