Moody's revises Gabon's credit outlook to negative amid public debt concerns

This decision reflects growing concerns about the sustainability of Gabon's public debt, citing a constrained financial environment, high financing needs, limited access to international markets, and uncertainties regarding the state's financial commitments. Moody's highlighted that pressure on state finances is increasing, warning that potential debt restructuring could be viewed as distressed operations, possibly leading to a default. The agency projects that budget deficits will remain high in the medium term, with gross financing needs estimated between 15% and 20% of GDP in the coming years.

Public debt could reach nearly 88% of GDP in the medium term, and the rising cost of debt service would further limit the government's ability to fund public policies. Moody's also considered the ongoing audit of public borrowings by Gabonese authorities. While this audit aims to improve transparency, Moody's believes it could also reveal undeclared liabilities, potentially worsening risk perception.

The country has already explored various financing solutions due to liquidity tensions, with borrowing costs remaining high and increasing reliance on alternative and regional financing. This situation raises concerns about Gabon's capacity to meet future obligations, especially with major bond maturities approaching fr