Middle East conflict impacts Moroccan economy, CEEPP study reveals vulnerabilities
via Le Matin8 min read
A study by the Centre for Public Policy Studies CEEPP highlights the significant impact of the Middle East conflict on the Moroccan economy, particularly due to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, 2026. This strategic passage, through which 20-25% of global oil and 20% of liquefied gas usually transit, has caused an unprecedented global energy crisis. Morocco, heavily reliant on energy imports, is particularly exposed. The CEEPP study, titled "The Effects of the Fourth Gulf War on the International and Moroccan Economy," was authored by Dr. Hakima El Haite, a member of the United Nations Advisory Council, and Dr. Nabil Adel, a professor-researcher in economics and international relations. It reveals Morocco's structural vulnerability as a net importer of over 90% of its energy needs. The immediate impact is seen in fuel price surges, with gasoline reaching nearly 15 dirhams per liter, exacerbating an already inflationary environment and weakening household purchasing power. The study notes that Morocco has not fully recovered from the 2022 Ukrainian crisis's inflationary pressures. National strategic reserves are estimated to cover only 15 to 31 days, far below the legally mandated 60 days, risking supply disruptions if the conflict prolongs. The study also indicates that macroeconomic assumptions in the 2026 Finance Law, which projected 4.5% growth based on a $65 per barrel oil price, are now obsolete. The CEEPP forecasts a potential 0.4 to 0.8 percentag
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