MCB Group revises Mauritius' growth forecast down to 2.9% amid Middle East instability
via Le Mauricien12 min read
The MCB Group has lowered Mauritius' economic growth forecast by 50 points to 2.9%, with potential for further revisions if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. This comes as key economic indicators show declines: tourism is down 0.8% from March to May, manufacturing exports fell 20.2% in the first quarter, and the trade deficit is projected to reach Rs 245 billion 31% of GDP. The current account deficit stands at 6.9%, and public debt is at 89.5% of GDP. The upcoming budget, to be presented by Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Navin Ramgoolam, is expected to introduce fiscal measures to counter the economic slowdown. While traditional growth drivers are struggling, the financial services sector is identified as a potential lifeline. The MCB Group emphasizes that preserving Mauritius' investment-grade sovereign rating is crucial for its reputation and attractiveness as a leading platform for trade and investment in Africa. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which began on February 28, poses risks due to Mauritius' reliance on imports like petroleum products 23% of total imports and food 20%. The external environment remains highly volatile, and a prolonged conflict could further impact the economy, potentially reducing growth by one percentage point or more. The MCB Group also highlights the need for fiscal consolidation, despite some positive signs like a 12.1% increase in public revenue from July 2025 to April. Public debt management remains a conce
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