Libya's economic challenges: policy-driven rent-seeking over production

He states that issues like currency speculation and fuel smuggling are symptoms, not the root cause. Bey highlights that Libya's reliance on oil and gas for 93% of its public revenues, combined with 100% domestic spending in Libyan dinars, creates a fundamental link between fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the exchange rate. When public expenditure and money supply outpace real production, and insufficient dinar liquidity is withdrawn, excess money seeks foreign currency, gold, or property, pressuring the dinar.

The existence of two substantially different prices for the dollar, such as through personal foreign-exchange allowances or preferential access to foreign currency, creates arbitrage opportunities where individuals can profit significantly with limited risk. This effectively transfers wealth from the masses to those with access to cheaper assets. Fuel subsidies operate similarly, creating a large price differential that incentivizes diversion and smuggling.

Bey suggests that subsidy reform should involve direct cash support to citizens rather than subsidizing commodity prices. He also notes that citizens holding dollars are often saving rather than speculating, as they rationally minimize exposu