Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts above-average rainfall for most counties from October to December 2026

This forecast is driven by a strengthening El Niño event, with the Niño 3.4 index reaching +2.7°C, and an anticipated positive Indian Ocean Dipole. KMSA projects that rainfall will be well distributed nationally, with numerous counties, including Nairobi, Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, and Mombasa, expected to receive above-average precipitation. Exceptions include Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, and Marsabit, where near-average to above-average rainfall is expected but with poor to fair distribution.

The Kenya Red Cross has issued a warning about potential hazards such as widespread flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, and large-scale displacement in high-risk areas. They specifically named communities along the lower Tana basin, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu, and parts of the Lake Victoria basin as being among the highest-risk areas for large-scale displacement. The Kenya Red Cross highlighted that the 2023/24 El Niño displaced over 500,000 people across 43 counties, and this season's severity index is projected to be even higher.