🇩🇿AlgeriaNorth Africa
International Energy Agency revises oil market outlook for 2026 and 2027
via Algérie3603 min read
The International Energy Agency IEA has updated its oil market forecast, anticipating a less severe decline in global oil demand for 2026 than previously projected. The organization now expects a contraction of 1 million barrels per day bpd in 2026, an improvement from the earlier estimate of 1.1 million bpd, with global consumption reaching an average of 103.5 million bpd. The IEA predicts a gradual recovery in consumption starting in late 2026, with demand expected to increase by 1.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026 after a slowdown in the first half of the year. This recovery is projected to accelerate in 2027, with demand growing by approximately 2 million bpd, although growth rates would remain below pre-crisis averages. Global oil consumption hit a low of 97.9 million bpd in May 2026, marking an annual decrease of 5.3 million bpd. However, the IEA expects this decline to moderate, forecasting a reduction of 1.7 million bpd in the third quarter before returning to growth in the final quarter. Demand could rise by over 8 million bpd by October, surpassing 2025 levels for the first time since February, driven by increased fuel consumption during the summer and deferred demand. On the supply side, the IEA projects a 3.7 million bpd decrease in global oil production for 2026, averaging 102.6 million bpd. However, supply could rebound by 7.5 million bpd in 2027, provided maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize. In June, global supply increased
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