IMF warns Iran crisis could stifle Sub-Saharan GDP growth, slashes forecast
via The Reporter Ethiopia9 min read
A new forecast from the International Monetary Fund IMF indicates that Sub-Saharan Africa could be significantly impacted by global supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran. The IMF has reduced its growth forecast for the region by 0.3 percentage points, from an initial 4.6 percent for 2026. Countries reliant on fuel imports are particularly vulnerable, while oil exporters may find any benefits offset by market volatility. The report highlights that Sub-Saharan Africa had a strong 2025, with regional growth estimated at 4.5 percent, the fastest in a decade, due to favorable external factors and sound policies. However, the Middle East conflict has led to sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, as well as shipping costs. This situation has also disrupted trade with Gulf partners, reduced tourist arrivals, and is expected to decrease remittances to some countries. The IMF projects median inflation to reach five percent by the end of 2026, nearly double the 3.4 percent recorded in late 2025. A 20 percent rise in international food prices could push over 20 million people into moderate or severe food insecurity across the region. The IMF advises African governments to implement policies that address immediate shocks and build long-term resilience, including protecting vulnerable populations, managing fiscal strategies, and mobilizing domestic revenues. Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia have made progress in sovereign debt restructuring, with Ethiopia and
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Must ReadThe Tigray People Liberation Front TPLF Central Committee is holding a high-stakes meeting in Axum, sparking fears of a political rupture in Tigray. The meeting, which began on April 15, 2026, is expected to address the fallout from the extension of Interim Administration President Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede’s mandate. This issue has exposed a growing divide between the TPLF and the current regional leadership. Regional political leaders suggest the TPLF may seek to reject the interim administration and restore its pre-war government structure. Yosef Berhe, vice chairman of the Baytona Party, believes the TPLF aims to dismantle the interim arrangement and reinstate the previous regional government, potentially framing this as a grassroots demand. Alemseged Aragay, vice chairman and foreign relations head of the Tigray Independence Party TIP, warned that the situation is at a dangerous turning point, with the TPLF now openly rejecting the extension of President Tadesse’s tenure, despite previously aligning with his interests. The controversy follows an April 8 announcement from the Office of the Prime Minister extending Lieutenant General Tadesse Worede's term by another year. The TPLF stated this extension violates the Pretoria Agreement and lacks legitimacy. President Tadesse acknowledged the opposition, stating that while rejecting his appointment is a right, the rejection itself is "childish." He also revealed that the Tigray region's budget has been cut since Octob
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