Hormuz Strait crisis: peace remains distant, says political risk consultant Frédéric Encel
via Le Matin7 min read
Since the conflict began on February 28 between Iran, the United States, and Israel over the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, scenarios of escalation and de-escalation have dominated the debate. Frédéric Encel, a political risk consultant and professor of international relations, analyzes what this war reveals about regional power balances. He discusses the power dynamic between Washington and Tehran, the centrality of the nuclear issue, Hormuz's strategic vulnerability, and remaining negotiation margins. Encel believes that a lasting peace is unlikely due to political obstacles, including Iran's refusal to adhere to the 1968 nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the absence of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington since 1979, Iran's non-recognition of Israel, and persistent tensions in Lebanon. He states that the impediments are not only military but also political, diplomatic, and doctrinal. Instead of a negotiated peace, he foresees a minimal stabilization dictated by power dynamics, aiming to contain the conflict's effects rather than resolve it. Encel suggests a prolonged ceasefire is a more plausible outcome, albeit an imperfect and fragile one, susceptible to incidents and violations. He notes that some ceasefires have lasted decades despite repeated breaches. While Iran retains some leverage, such as missiles and drones, its overall capacity for harm is limited compared to the United States. Encel highlights the significant weakening of Iran's regional p
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Moroccan referee Jalal Jiyed, assisted by compatriots Zakaria Brinsi and Mustapha Akerkad, has been appointed by FIFA to officiate the World Cup 2026 group stage match between Portugal and Uzbekistan. South African Tom Abongile will serve as the fourth official, assisted by Zakhele Siwela. This marks the second assignment for the Moroccan trio, who previously officiated the Germany vs. Curaçao match. Portugal drew their first match against the Democratic Republic of Congo 1-1, while Uzbekistan lost 3-1 to Colombia. The upcoming match is crucial for both Portugal and Uzbekistan's qualification hopes. Notably, an Uzbek referee, Ilgiz Tantashov, recently officiated a match involving Morocco's Atlas Lions against Scotland.
Following Morocco's 1-0 victory over Scotland, coach Mohamed Ouahbi assessed the team's performance in the 2026 World Cup, where they have accumulated four points from two matches against Brazil and Scotland. Ouahbi highlighted the team's collective control and improved offensive intentions compared to their draw against Brazil. He noted that while Scotland played more directly with long balls, Morocco effectively countered their strategy. Despite their strong position, Ouahbi emphasized that qualification is not yet secured and the team's objective is to defeat Haiti in the final group match to ensure qualification and potentially secure first place. He also stated that he would field the best possible team against Haiti, considering player freshness, opponent profile, and match context, rather than systematically rotating the squad. Ouahbi also publicly supported captain Achraf Hakimi, who is facing legal proceedings, stating that Hakimi was focused, motivated the team, and played an excellent match. Ouahbi praised the team's mental fortitude and expressed confidence in their ability to advance to the round of sixteen as group leaders.
Bank Al-Maghrib has issued a warning to all banks regarding a global surge in cybercrime campaigns exploiting public interest in the 2026 World Cup. The central bank notes that these threats include the distribution of malware via fake applications or match streaming platforms, as well as phishing campaigns designed to trick users into revealing sensitive information, such as login credentials and banking details. Bank Al-Maghrib urges banks to enhance customer awareness efforts and emphasize key vigilance rules. These include exercising caution before installing match-streaming applications, avoiding links received via email, SMS, or social media that offer broadcasts or promotional deals, verifying website authenticity before entering personal or banking data, and immediately reporting any suspicious activity or unauthorized transactions to the bank. The central bank also instructs banking institutions to relay these vigilance messages to their customers through appropriate communication channels.