Fuel price increase in Senegal was anticipated, unavoidable due to global market pressures

As early as May 22, 2026, then-Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko had warned deputies that while the government would hold out as long as possible, some actions were unavoidable. He detailed an unsustainable budget equation, citing soaring global oil prices due to Middle East tensions, which significantly increased subsidy costs. Sonko noted that the national budget was based on a barrel price that had since doubled, and he projected energy subsidies could exceed 1,000 billion F CFA, nearly one-fifth of the national budget.

This figure was confirmed three months later in a government statement on August 14. Despite Sonko's departure from the Prime Minister's office in May 2026 and his replacement by Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, global market trends and the budgetary constraints remained unchanged. The Minister of Hydrocarbons, Birame Souleye Diop, confirmed in early August that the decision not to pass on international price increases was a political directive, maintained only as long as public finances could absorb it.

Between May and August, the state reallocated nearly 687 billion F CFA to energy subsidies as oil prices consistently stayed above $85 per barrel. With international diesel and super fuel prices rising by 69% and 61% respectively since February 2026, maintaining old rates would have required an additional 47 billion F CFA for the period of August 1