Ethiopia: preventing another war in the Tigray region after the Pretoria Peace Agreement
via The Reporter Ethiopia11 min read
The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in November 2022, brought a halt to the conflict between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front TPLF. Despite initial hopes for political dialogue, mutual suspicion and disagreements persist, raising concerns that the Tigray region could again face armed confrontation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accused TPLF factions of trying to undermine the peace process and provoke war, while the TPLF denies alliances with Eritrea and Sudan and expresses dissatisfaction with the post-Pretoria political process. Reports of military recruitment and preparations by both sides contribute to an atmosphere of mistrust. The article references William Zartman’s concept of the “ripe moment,” where parties negotiate when continuing to fight is no longer beneficial. Ethiopia reached such a moment in late 2022 due to catastrophic humanitarian consequences and diminishing prospects of military victory, leading to the Pretoria Agreement. This agreement, while imperfect, has led to achievements like the establishment of the Tigray Interim Administration and the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration program. However, it did not eliminate political disagreements, transforming them into a fragile political contestation. The challenge now is to prevent these disagreements from escalating back into military conflict. The article argues that Ethiopia should not wait for another devastating war to create a “ripe moment” for di
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