Ethiopia faces renewed conflict in Tigray, raising concerns about wider regional instability

The clashes, involving heavy artillery, mechanized units, and drone strikes, lasted approximately eleven hours and caused hundreds of civilians to flee into Sudan. Both sides blamed each other for initiating the conflict. This confrontation is considered the most serious in northern Ethiopia since the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the 2020–2022 conflict between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The previous war resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, widespread displacement, and devastated infrastructure in Tigray. The Pretoria agreement's fragility, stemming from an incomplete disarmament process and the TPLF hardliners reinstating the old regional government, has led to months of mutual accusations and troop buildups. A full resumption of war would exacerbate humanitarian crises, including food insecurity and damaged health systems, and stretch Ethiopia's military and economic capacity, already strained by insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia.

Regionally, the situation is complicated by Eritrea's open hostility with Ethiopia, driven by disputes over sea access and accusations of supporting rival factions. Analysts warn of a potential return to an Ethiopia-Eritrea war, with Tigray as a likely battleground. Sudan's involvement, with Tigrayan units reportedly operating from its e