El Niño intensifies, threatening Mauritius with warmer, drier conditions and potential water resource strain

While cyclonic activity in the Southwest Indian Ocean is expected to be less significant, the risk of a tropical system directly impacting Mauritius remains. The El Niño phenomenon, which has been strengthening since June and is projected to peak between October and December, is a primary driver of these changes. Past major El Niño events in Mauritius have typically led to increased heat and near-normal summer rainfall, with reduced cyclonic activity.

However, a concerning aspect of the current situation is an already noticeable rainfall deficit, with the Standardised Precipitation Index SPI remaining negative from May to July this year. Forecasts for August, September, and October predict rainfall at approximately 80% of the normal levels, with a slight improvement to 90% in November. This suggests a generally drier period, even with intermittent rain episodes.

The combination of El Niño and a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole IOD could lead to more frequent heatwaves during the 2026-27 summer. The MMS emphasizes that the distribution of rainfall will be crucial, as extended dry spells between rain events could strain water resources, even if seasonal totals are not exceptionally low. While strong El Niño events are usually linked to lower cyclonic activity, this statistical trend does not