Egypt's declining regional influence and the reconfigured power dynamics in the Horn of Africa

For much of the 20th century, under Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt leveraged pan-Arabism to mobilize populations and legitimize its leadership, extending its influence into the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin. However, the decline of Arab nationalism has eroded Cairo's ideological authority and the regional order it once dominated. This shift has major implications for the Horn of Africa, particularly with Ethiopia emerging as a more autonomous regional actor.

Egypt's current challenges are not solely about the Nile or the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD, but reflect the disappearance of the geopolitical environment that allowed Cairo to project power through collective Arab solidarity. The 1979 peace treaty with Israel and the end of the Cold War further fractured Arab unity, with states increasingly adopting state-centric security policies. The Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 accelerated this fragmentation, leading to a regional landscape defined by competitive statecraft rather than collective Arab coordination.

Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have emerged as principal financial and geopolitical centers, while Turkey and Iran have increased their regional influence. The Arab world no longer functions as a coherent geopolitical bloc, with transactional geopolitics