Super El Niño: assessing the risk of drought in Morocco
via Le Matin2 min read
International organizations, including the World Meteorological Organization, indicate a probable transition to an El Niño climate system between May and July 2026. This phenomenon is known for its role in global climate variability. Strong "Super" El Niño events are typically linked to warmer global temperatures and an increased likelihood of temperature records. During El Niño phases, surface waters in the equatorial Pacific release more heat into the atmosphere, contributing to global temperature increases. However, the effects of El Niño are not uniform across all regions. In Morocco, its influence is partial, indirect, and highly seasonal. It primarily affects southern arid regions like Laâyoune, Dakhla, and Ouarzazate, with less impact in the North and Center. This influence is more noticeable in spring. In winter, when precipitation is crucial, other climatic mechanisms, particularly atmospheric oscillations linked to the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basin, become more dominant. Specialists emphasize that El Niño never acts in isolation; it interacts with other climate systems that can modify or counteract its effects. The diverse configurations of El Niño also lead to varying impacts depending on whether it develops in the eastern or central Pacific. Recent observations highlight this complexity: Morocco experienced significant droughts between 2020 and 2024 despite La Niña conditions, which are generally associated with wetter years. This demonstrates the limitat
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