Tunisian economy faces significant challenges in 2026 due to energy prices and international tensions
via Business News2 min read
Mohamed Salah Ayari, a university professor and tax advisor, highlighted the potential for the Tunisian economy to be heavily impacted in 2026 by rising energy prices and international tensions. Speaking on National Radio on April 22, 2026, he noted that the global economy is experiencing significant turbulence, influenced by events like those in the Middle East, which have led to reduced energy flows and volatile prices. The price of a barrel of oil, previously around sixty dollars, has surpassed one hundred dollars before stabilizing at approximately 94 dollars, a level that remains high and detrimental to importing economies. Ayari also pointed to the worsening food insecurity, with an estimated 45 million more people globally potentially facing hunger, bringing the total to nearly 360 million. He expects a substantial increase in demand for financing from the International Monetary Fund, with needs ranging from twenty to fifty billion dollars. For Tunisia, Ayari noted a discrepancy between the official 2026 finance law's growth forecast of 3.2% and the IMF's projection of 2.1%. The energy issue is particularly concerning, as the state budget was based on an oil price of 63.3 dollars per barrel, significantly lower than current levels. He estimates that each additional dollar per barrel adds about 160 million dinars to public finances, potentially reaching 5.1 billion dinars if prices remain high, or 1.9 billion dinars even at 75 dollars per barrel. These pressures could a
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Tunisia's food trade balance recorded a surplus of 798.3 million dinars by the end of March 2026, a 29.65% increase compared to the same period in the previous year, according to the National Observatory of Agriculture Onagri. The coverage rate improved from 134.8% to 139.6%. This surplus was driven by a 17.9% rise in food exports, notably olive oil exports which increased by 38.1%, despite a 13.9% increase in food imports, including a 7.7% rise in cereal imports. Export prices for olive oil, tomatoes, and citrus fruits decreased by 3.6%, 18.3%, and 6.7% respectively, while prices for fishery products and dates increased by 6.6% and 3.2%. Import prices for durum wheat, soft wheat, and corn decreased by 15.6%, 9.9%, and 7.8% respectively, though barley prices rose by 3.4%. Sugar prices increased by 30.4%, while vegetable oil prices fell by 1% and milk and dairy product prices decreased by 7.8%. The food trade surplus helped mitigate the overall trade deficit, which worsened by 3.62% to -5.23 billion dinars by the end of March 2026, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics INS. Food imports constituted 9.4% of total imports, and food exports accounted for 17.3% of total exports. Onagri highlighted that the food trade surplus contributed 15.3% to offsetting the overall trade deficit.
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