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Middle East conflict: a war of attrition with global implications, according to Nejib Hachana

During an interview on Jawhara FM on Friday, April 17, 2026, former ambassador Nejib Hachana offered an analysis of the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting its historical, economic, and geopolitical dimensions. He drew a parallel with the fall of the Shah of Iran, suggesting that current scenarios might aim to replicate an internal collapse of the Iranian regime, with initial military actions against Iran intended to provoke internal destabilization. However, Hachana believes this approach misinterprets Iranian society, which he sees as resilient and cohesive, making regime change through external pressure difficult. He noted a shift towards economic pressure, such as attempts to restrict Iranian oil imports, estimating daily losses for Iran at approximately $290 million, in addition to significant infrastructure damage. Despite this, Hachana stated that Iran maintains room for maneuver, particularly due to its energy resources, and its ability to export oil at high prices could mitigate these losses. He described the current situation as a war of attrition, with economic and financial losses on both sides, and warned of the risk of conflict extension with regional and international repercussions. He emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 26% of global energy trade passes, noting that any disruption could affect the Gulf countries and Europe. Hachana also placed the conflict within a broader international dynamic, marked by Chi