National Bank of Ethiopia warns Middle East war could reverse inflation gains
via The Reporter Ethiopia6 min read
The National Bank of Ethiopia's Monetary Policy Committee has cautioned that supply shocks from the war in Iran could undo progress made in reducing inflation. Following its sixth meeting, the committee reported a headline inflation rate of 9.7 percent for February 2026, attributing this success to tight monetary policies implemented since August 2023, including a cap on bank credit growth. However, the central bank stated that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to increase global oil prices and disrupt supply chains, posing significant upside risks to domestic inflation. Crude oil prices have already risen to nearly USD 110 per barrel since US-Israeli attacks on Iran began last month. The committee noted 9.2 percent GDP growth in 2024/5 and a balance of payments surplus, urging the NBE board to continue with tight monetary policies, including credit growth caps. The committee will reconvene in late April to assess if further policy measures are needed.
Free daily or weekly digest of the most important stories from across 18 African countries. No spam, unsubscribe any time.
This summary was AI-generated from a story originally published by The Reporter Ethiopia.
Must ReadThe Ethiopian Civil Society Organizations Coalition for Election CECOE reported that the voter registration process for the country’s seventh general election was marked by repeated digital system failures, limited accessibility for people with disabilities, and security incidents. These incidents included killings, abductions, and intimidation targeting election officials. CECOE, accredited by the National Election Board of Ethiopia NEBE, deployed 522 long-term observers to nearly 4,400 voter registration centers across all regional states and city administrations, excluding Tigray. The coalition noted that while 97 percent of registration centers were in legally authorized sites, some operated from prohibited locations such as military camps, police facilities, religious institutions, health centers, bars, hotels, political party offices, and private residences. Interruptions affected a third of manual registration centers and over a quarter of digital centers. Accessibility was a major concern, with only 12 percent of manual and 23 percent of tablet-based stations independently accessible to people with disabilities. Similarly, only 11 percent of manual and 20 percent of digital centers were accessible to the elderly, pregnant women, and parents with infants. However, about 90 percent of both manual and tablet-based stations were considered reasonably accessible and secure for women. The report documented one killing of an election official, two attempted killings, seven a
Ethiopia's Ministry of Finance announced the restoration of daily diesel supply to nine million liters, following a two-month period of reduced volume due to supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war in Iran. Fuel trucks have begun transporting diesel from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, with more expected to reach regional towns and cities. This development is anticipated to alleviate the challenges faced by truck and public transport drivers who have experienced long queues at pumping stations. The diesel crisis had previously impacted food and commodity prices, particularly fresh produce, and led to a nearly 17 percent increase in diesel retail prices to 163.09 Bir per liter. Reports also indicated a rise in illicit fuel trade during the disruption. Talks between the US and Iran have stalled after eight weeks of fighting, raising concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dashen Breweries SC has announced the appointment of Matiyas Getachew as its new Chief Executive Officer. This appointment marks a significant transition as Matiyas becomes the first Ethiopian executive to lead a major brewery in a sector traditionally headed by expatriates. Matiyas joined Dashen in 2020 as Chief Financial Officer and was named acting CEO last year after the departure of Mario Van Geldern. The company elevated him to permanent CEO due to his strong leadership and achievements as CFO during challenging macroeconomic conditions. Matiyas holds a bachelor’s degree from Addis Ababa University’s Commercial College, is a chartered certified accountant, and has a master’s degree from Heriot-Watt University. His international background includes leadership roles at SABMiller, Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, and Diageo. Industry observers note this appointment reflects a broader trend toward local leadership in multinational corporations, with other major players like Coca-Cola and Unilever also recently appointing local CEOs. An industry analyst stated that Matiyas’s appointment shows growing confidence in Ethiopia’s ability to empower homegrown executives to lead large consumer businesses. Dashen Breweries was founded in 2000 by Tiret Corporate, with Duet Group, a UK investment firm, holding a majority stake since 2012.
Must ReadDespite being educated, networked, and aware of grievances, Tigrayan youth and pro-reform elites have struggled to achieve a non-violent transition away from the dominance of TPLF hardliners. This failure is attributed to historical legacies, coercive control, elite fragmentation, war fatigue, external interventions, and survival calculations. The article outlines five interacting factors: historical contingency shaping political identity, the coercive capture of security institutions by hardliners, elite fragmentation co-opting youth energy, war fatigue leading to a preference for stability, and external actors reshaping opportunity structures. A roadmap for non-violent transformation proposes four measures: a verifiable security deconcentration process, inclusive political engineering beyond personality politics, economic stabilization and civic reintegration, and a strategic civic coalition and communication plan. Potential positive scenarios include a managed stalemate evolving into gradual political opening, or a tipping point from successful decentralization of coercive structures. Conversely, negative scenarios include hardliner consolidation, intra-Tigrayan civil war, radicalization of disempowered youth, regional destabilization, and permanent political fragmentation. The article concludes that rekindling confidence among Tigrayan youth and elites requires verifiable, staged changes that reduce existential risks, supported by impartial external facilitation, calibrat