Middle East conflict: Tunisia faces economic slowdown and rising inflation, IMF warns
via Business News9 min read
Tunisia is particularly vulnerable to the global economic shock caused by the Middle East conflict, according to a recent International Monetary Fund report. University economics professor Ridha Chkoundali highlighted the country's structural fragilities, noting that the conflict, which began in late February 2026, has disrupted a fragile global economic balance. The IMF's "reference forecasts" indicate high uncertainty, with global growth projected at 3.1% in 2026, a decrease from earlier predictions. Global inflation is expected to reach 4.4% in 2026, driven by increased energy and raw material costs. Emerging and developing economies, especially those reliant on commodity imports, are most exposed to these impacts. For Tunisia, the IMF projects economic growth of 2.1% in 2026, below the global average, with inflation rising to 6.1%. This situation reflects Tunisia's dependence on energy imports and limited fiscal capacity, making it highly susceptible to price shocks. The IMF advises careful economic policy management, focusing on price and financial stability, targeted aid for vulnerable populations, and avoiding trade restrictions.
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