IMF warns of global economic slowdown and rising inflation due to geopolitical conflict

The International Monetary Fund IMF has released its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, painting a concerning picture of the global economy. Already weakened by trade tensions and persistent uncertainty, the world economy now faces a major geopolitical shock following the outbreak of a conflict in the Middle East in late February. This new development disrupts precarious balances and darkens growth prospects in the short and medium term. Global growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026, rising slightly to 3.2% in 2027. These levels are lower than the 3.4% observed in 2024 and 2025, and below the historical average of 3.7% between 2000 and 2019. The conflict's impact is evident in the 0.2 percentage point downward revision for 2026 compared to January estimates. Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify, with global inflation now projected at 4.4% in 2026 before declining to 3.7% in 2027. This upward revision reflects disruptions to commodity prices, particularly energy. The IMF estimates that global growth could have been revised upwards without the conflict, highlighting the current shock's magnitude. The institution also points to significant disparities between countries. Economies directly affected by the conflict, as well as emerging and developing countries heavily reliant on raw material imports, face more severe revisions. For the latter, 2026 growth is revised down by 0.3 percentage points, while advanced economies appear relatively preserved for now. The IMF