IMF raises Algeria's 2026 growth forecast amid global tensions

This revision, detailed in the "World Economic Outlook" report, indicates a more robust economic dynamic than previously expected, despite global geopolitical tensions and trade slowdowns. The IMF projects Algeria's economic activity to grow by 3.4% in 2025, stabilize around 3.5% in 2027, and reach 3.8% in 2026. This growth is driven by the hydrocarbon sector, supported by international demand for natural gas, and increasingly by non-hydrocarbon activities such as mining and manufacturing.

The report highlights a gradual transformation of the economic model, with diversification efforts beginning to show results, though hydrocarbon dependence remains significant. Algeria's external balances are strong, with a current account surplus estimated at 1.8% of GDP in 2026, a nominal GDP of around 275 billion dollars, and foreign exchange reserves bolstered by energy exports. These factors provide Algeria with room to maneuver against external shocks.

An improvement in the labor market is also expected, with unemployment projected to slightly decrease to 11.2%, supported by public investments and ongoing industrial projects. Other institutions, such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank, also project similar growth rates for Algeria in 2026, reinforcing the credibility of the overall scenario. Favorable indicators include controlled inf