Global oil consumption expected to decrease in 2026, IEA reports

The International Energy Agency IEA forecasts a new annual decline in global oil consumption for 2026, projecting it to reach 104.26 million barrels per day mb/d, down from 104.34 mb/d in 2025. This follows a period of steady growth since 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns caused an 8.97 mb/d drop in demand. The IEA's monthly report on oil markets indicates that global oil demand is expected to decrease by an average of 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, a significant shift from the 730,000 barrels per day growth anticipated in last month's report. The second quarter of 2026 could see a 1.5 mb/d decline, which would be the largest since the drop in fuel consumption caused by COVID-19. Initially, the most significant reductions in oil consumption were observed in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, particularly for aviation fuel and liquefied petroleum gas LPG. However, the IEA warns that demand destruction is expected to spread as shortages and rising prices persist. The agency reiterates its assessment of this situation as the "most severe oil supply shock in history." Global oil production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97.05 mb/d in March, attributed to ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf and disruptions to oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz.