Asymmetric conflict in Somalia and Sudan and its impact on Ethiopia
via The Reporter Ethiopia12 min read
Somalia's national army recently took control of Baidowa in the South West State, a strategic city that has hosted international peacekeepers. This military operation followed the South West State administration's intent to sever ties with the federal government in Mogadishu, leading to the resignation and flight of President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. Analysts suggest that Mogadishu's military strength, evident in this operation, is bolstered by support from Turkiye and Egypt, a departure from Somalia's historical reliance on Ethiopian forces. A geopolitical analyst noted that Turkiye and Egypt are militarily supporting Hassan Sheikh's government to secure their strategic interests, potentially undermining Ethiopia's role in Somalia's security and raising concerns about Al-Shabaab's resurgence near the Ethiopian border. Simultaneously, the conflict in Sudan has escalated near the Ethiopian border in the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State, with the Rapid Support Forces RSF and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North SPLM-N launching offensives against the Sudanese Armed Forces SAF. This fighting impacts strategic areas for illicit trade between Ethiopia and Sudan, and the Sudanese portion of Kurmuk, vital for its proximity to the Roseires Dam. The Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs IFA published a paper highlighting the Muslim Brotherhood's MBH influence in regional conflicts, particularly in Sudan and Somalia, and its alleged support from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, a
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Must ReadThe Ethiopian Civil Society Organizations Coalition for Election CECOE reported that the voter registration process for the country’s seventh general election was marked by repeated digital system failures, limited accessibility for people with disabilities, and security incidents. These incidents included killings, abductions, and intimidation targeting election officials. CECOE, accredited by the National Election Board of Ethiopia NEBE, deployed 522 long-term observers to nearly 4,400 voter registration centers across all regional states and city administrations, excluding Tigray. The coalition noted that while 97 percent of registration centers were in legally authorized sites, some operated from prohibited locations such as military camps, police facilities, religious institutions, health centers, bars, hotels, political party offices, and private residences. Interruptions affected a third of manual registration centers and over a quarter of digital centers. Accessibility was a major concern, with only 12 percent of manual and 23 percent of tablet-based stations independently accessible to people with disabilities. Similarly, only 11 percent of manual and 20 percent of digital centers were accessible to the elderly, pregnant women, and parents with infants. However, about 90 percent of both manual and tablet-based stations were considered reasonably accessible and secure for women. The report documented one killing of an election official, two attempted killings, seven a
Ethiopia's Ministry of Finance announced the restoration of daily diesel supply to nine million liters, following a two-month period of reduced volume due to supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war in Iran. Fuel trucks have begun transporting diesel from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, with more expected to reach regional towns and cities. This development is anticipated to alleviate the challenges faced by truck and public transport drivers who have experienced long queues at pumping stations. The diesel crisis had previously impacted food and commodity prices, particularly fresh produce, and led to a nearly 17 percent increase in diesel retail prices to 163.09 Bir per liter. Reports also indicated a rise in illicit fuel trade during the disruption. Talks between the US and Iran have stalled after eight weeks of fighting, raising concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dashen Breweries SC has announced the appointment of Matiyas Getachew as its new Chief Executive Officer. This appointment marks a significant transition as Matiyas becomes the first Ethiopian executive to lead a major brewery in a sector traditionally headed by expatriates. Matiyas joined Dashen in 2020 as Chief Financial Officer and was named acting CEO last year after the departure of Mario Van Geldern. The company elevated him to permanent CEO due to his strong leadership and achievements as CFO during challenging macroeconomic conditions. Matiyas holds a bachelor’s degree from Addis Ababa University’s Commercial College, is a chartered certified accountant, and has a master’s degree from Heriot-Watt University. His international background includes leadership roles at SABMiller, Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, and Diageo. Industry observers note this appointment reflects a broader trend toward local leadership in multinational corporations, with other major players like Coca-Cola and Unilever also recently appointing local CEOs. An industry analyst stated that Matiyas’s appointment shows growing confidence in Ethiopia’s ability to empower homegrown executives to lead large consumer businesses. Dashen Breweries was founded in 2000 by Tiret Corporate, with Duet Group, a UK investment firm, holding a majority stake since 2012.
Must ReadDespite being educated, networked, and aware of grievances, Tigrayan youth and pro-reform elites have struggled to achieve a non-violent transition away from the dominance of TPLF hardliners. This failure is attributed to historical legacies, coercive control, elite fragmentation, war fatigue, external interventions, and survival calculations. The article outlines five interacting factors: historical contingency shaping political identity, the coercive capture of security institutions by hardliners, elite fragmentation co-opting youth energy, war fatigue leading to a preference for stability, and external actors reshaping opportunity structures. A roadmap for non-violent transformation proposes four measures: a verifiable security deconcentration process, inclusive political engineering beyond personality politics, economic stabilization and civic reintegration, and a strategic civic coalition and communication plan. Potential positive scenarios include a managed stalemate evolving into gradual political opening, or a tipping point from successful decentralization of coercive structures. Conversely, negative scenarios include hardliner consolidation, intra-Tigrayan civil war, radicalization of disempowered youth, regional destabilization, and permanent political fragmentation. The article concludes that rekindling confidence among Tigrayan youth and elites requires verifiable, staged changes that reduce existential risks, supported by impartial external facilitation, calibrat